FanPost

VT/NC State Statistical Comparison



What do the geeks expect this weekend?

You might be surprised how highly the numbers say we should be ranked in spite of our three losses...

This week's statistical comparison will include the following ratings and, if available, the statistical prediction based on the rating:

  • Massey Ratings (http://www.masseyratings.com/).  These are Massey's own ratings which include scoring margin, not to be confused with his BCS rankings which will not post until they achieve some level of credibility during the season.
  • Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm), perhaps the most popular of all statistical rankings.  The first is his ELO ranking, which is used for the BCS and fits their criteria; the second is PREDICTOR which takes into account scoring margin and is much more accurate for determining how good teams are.
  • Fremeau Index (http://bcftoys.blogspot.com/2009/09/week-2-fei-ratings.html) as suggested by furrer4heisman.  From the site this system is "based on drive-based Game Efficiency data that rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams" where Game Efficiency is "Measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring during the Competitive Possessions of a game as GE = ((Points For - Points Against)/7) / (Total Competitive Possessions/2)" and competitive possesions are basically possessions that potentially matter.
  • FACT (http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt) stands for the Foundation for the Analysis of Competition and Tournaments and was created by David Rothman originally to rank chess players worldwide.  Peter Wolfe, whose own rating will publish for the first time next week, is gracious enough to continue publishing the fACT rankings since Rothman's death in 2004.

Here is how we stack up:

System

VT Rating (Rank)

NCST Rating (Rank)

Highest Rated

Prediction

Massey

2.218 (9th)

1.455 (79th)

2.740 - Texas

VT by 19.7

Sagarin ELO

83.27 (13th)

66.92 (84th)

94.04 - Florida

VT by 16.4

Sagarin PREDICTOR

90.15 (5th)

68.03 (77th)

93.98 - Texas

VT by 22.1

Fremeau

0.234 (7th)

0.000 (64th)

0.280 - Alabama

-

FACT

66.71 (11th)

47.42 (69th)

81.19  - Alabama

-

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