Darren Evans vs. Jonathan Dwyer

The Legacyx4 guys are starting to campaign hard for Jonathan Dwyer for Heisman. Other than Matty Ice in 2007, he's one of the few legit Heisman hopefuls the conference has seen in some time. But how much better is the reigning ACC offensive player of the year than other backs in the conference.

Specifically, I wanted to know how much better Dwyer was than Tech's Darren Evans. In conference games, Dwyer dominates Evan's statistically. The Jacket back averaged 6.7 YPC and had seven touchdowns in league play against Evans' 4.4 YPC and four touchdowns. (Stats from here)

He also had a knack for the big play, with 19 runs of 20 yards or more during the 2008 season. Evans had 10.

But when it came to nitty-gritty, down-and-dirty plays, Evans had the advantage. On 3rd and short (1-3 yards), Evans averaged 3.3 YPC to Dwyer's 1.8. Evans converted 14 of his 22 3rd and short carries for first downs (63.6 percent). Dwyer moved the sticks on six of his 12 carries in the same situation (50 percent).

The red zone was where Evans did a majority of his grunt work, carrying the ball 74 times for 213 yards (2.9 YPC). Dwyer had significantly less red zone carries than Evans, gaining 89 yards on 24 attempts (3.7 YPC). But Evans converted more often than Dwyer. The Hokie back scored 11 times in the red zone (14.9 percent of his carries). Dwyer got in the end zone twice (8.3 percent).

All of Evans' 11 touchdowns came in the red zone where two of Dwyer's 12 came in the red zone.

But while Evans can make a case for himself by getting tough yards, he gets crushed by Dwyer in efficiency. Yes, we're going back to the efficiency numbers we used last week to break down Tech's offense and this week to break down Tyrod Taylor's regression.

The equation is simple. Take your opponent's YPC in conference (without sacks) and multiply it by how many carries you had against them to get your expected yards. Then compare it to how many yards you gained against them.

Dwyer was below his expected yards only once against ACC opponents in 2008. That was against Virginia Tech, when he carried the ball only 10 times after leaving early with a back injury.

Evans was held below his expected yards three times in losses to Boston College and Miami and a win over Virginia.

Here's the results, with sack yards taken out:

Evans vs. Dwyer: ACC Efficiency
Name OppYPC Rush ExYds Yards Eff
Evans 4.3 184 796.4 852 1.070
Dwyer 4.3 134 580.1 905 1.560

Dwyer's efficiency is astronomical. My guess is you'd be hard-pressed to find a running back from a BCS school who did better against his conference opponents than Dwyer did.

Evans is a good back who fits into Virginia Tech's offense as well as Dwyer fits into Georgia Tech's. However, I give the edge to Dwyer for the conference's best running back.

Random Weekend Linkage

- Does getting passed over for the CFA Kickoff put BC at a disadvantage? Brian says yes. Jeff says, "for the last time, I don't know where your earrings are. They were on the dresser before and I didn't move them." (BC Interruption)
- Dwyer4Heisman continues. (The Legacyx4)
- Scheduling habits of BCSCG teams. (Tomahawk Nation)
- The most important games on each ACC team's schedule. (Annette)
- Amalie Benjamin (who I love and in a heartbeat would give up my hard-drinking, road-tripping bachelor ways for) on the ejections in Thursday's game. (Globe)
- Will Martellus be partying with Kam and Tyrod? (MartyBTV)

Oh, and CGB informs me that Peter King has been hitting on Amalie via the Twitter. That's my job, ass hole. Lay off if you know what's best for you.

Finals Time

I might be the only person disappointed that this year's Finals is a rematch. But, my disappointment comes out of my complete and utter hatred of the Detroit Red Wings. On my own personal Hate Index, the Wings are just below the 'Hoos and just above the Yankees.

The Penguins have the household names in Crosby and Malkin as well as one of my favorite hockey players (and probably Brian's as well) in Brooks Orpik. The Wings have an annoying goalie who tends to suck immensely in the regular season and then have a great playoff season in Chris Osgood as well as the ancient Chris Chelios.

In the first three rounds I picked against the Wings. So you know what that means. It's reverse-jinx time!

Finals pick: Wings in 7.

Go Pens. De-troit sucks! De-troit sucks!

- Your Stanley storylines. (Puck Daddy)
- What's changed for the Pens. (From the Rink)
- Your Protagonists. (Pensburgh)
- Your Filthy Commie Bastards. (Winging it in Motown)

OK, maybe they're aren't that filthy. One of the operators of Winging it in Motown is a Virginia Tech student and the other one is a woman who goes to Michigan who is pretty hot. Still, I hope they're really disappointed here in about a week. Even if no one from Pensburgh has Hokie connections.

Random Weekend Video Because I Can


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