Statistical Score Estimate vs. Duke

Just so you don't have to dig for the actual score every week, it will be put on the front each week and you can take a look at the details after the jump if you want.

Duke Game

Only a 12 point victory picked this week for a couple of reasons:  1.  Duke's offensive strength (their passing game) matches up well against the weaker part of our defense and 2. Duke's defensive strength (their run defense) may be able to neutralize our offensive cornerstone of pounding the rock.  Add that to the fact that every year Cutcliffe sells out against the run more than any other team we face in the ACC and this may be a pretty close estimate.  The obvious X factor being how well Logan can overcome that.

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Duke 71.0 261.1 332.1 19.8
Virginia Tech 179.3 258.2 437.5 31.6

 

Hokie Offense

As David Wilson blew by all defenders (thanks in large part to great downfield blocking -- I <3 Danny Coale) and Logan Thomas ran over all defenders, our Rushing Offense gained 18 spots over last week.  And the Logan Thomas project continued to progress as he put up his fourth solid game in a row and the passing game jumped 6 spots as well.  My favorite thing to watch since the debacle versus Clemson has to be the way he has learned to checkdown to the back just planted in the middle of a zone rather than taking a sack.  The difference between that sack and those 3 positive yards is amazing.

 

  Rushing Offense
Team Actual Rush YPG Acutal Rank Adj Rushing Yards Adj Rank
Virginia Tech 194.9 28 169.7 35

 

 

  Passing Offense
Team Actual Pass YPG Actual Rank Adj Passing Yards Adj Rank
Virginia Tech 232.1 60 214.5 59

 

 

 

Hokie Defense

The defense holds steady for the most part in its ranking as it did what it's done all year long except for the fact that the big score came in a couple of chunks rather than one 80 yard touchdown play.  So not only do all of the eyeball analysis continue to be impressed with the continued success after a number of defensive injuries, but the stats continue to prove that.

 

  Rushing Defense
Team Actual Rush YPG Actual Rank Adj Rushing Yards Rank
Virginia Tech 84.6 7 107.1 12

 

 

  Passing Defense
Team Actual Pass YPG Actual Rank Adj Passing Yards Rank
Virginia Tech 210.3 44 212.3 28

 

 

Other Notable Games

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Michigan State 147.9 225.5 373.4 28.0
Nebraska 143.7 105.9 249.6 18.1

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Oklahoma 109.9 395.5 505.4 34.7
Kansas State 151.7 138.2 289.8 20.2

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Georgia 133.8 202.8 336.6 24.5
Florida 128.8 148.4 277.2 21.3
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