Statistical Score Estimate vs. Miami
by VTinACC on Oct 4, 2011 1:19 AM EDT
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PrintThe spreadsheet took a definite hit in the Virginia Tech game but looked good in it's blowout predictions for Alabama and Wisconsin (and should've been A&M until they blew another one) and picked the SMU upset over TCU.
As we always know, the Hokies statistics always seem to favor better than their actual play but let's hope ol' mighty Excel can get this one right.
Hokie Offense
The actual numbers didn't take too much of a hit. The hit was in the Yards per Point calculation which is obvious.
| Offense | ||||
| Team | Adj Rushing Yards | Rank | Adj Passing Yards | Rank |
| Virginia Tech | 167.6 | 41 | 177.5 | 94 |
Hokie Defense
Our defensive numbers actually improved as we played Clemson's offense better than everyone else has this year.
| Defense | ||||
| Team | Adj Rushing Yards | Rank | Adj Passing Yards | Rank |
| Virginia Tech | 70.7 | 2 | 181.9 | 7 |
Miami Game
When comparing the season statistics, the offenses are pretty similar while we have a top 10 defense and they have a bottom 15 run defense. That was the case versus Clemson, so again its up to our coaches and Logan to uphold their parts of the deal. Can we find enough of an offensive identity to balance our run strength with an easy passing scheme for Logan to learn in? I guess we'll find out again this Saturday, but again the stats are on our side.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Miami (Florida) | 78.1 | 151.1 | 229.2 | 16.0 |
| Virginia Tech | 265.2 | 174.1 | 439.3 | 26.7 |
Other Notable Games
Florida-LSU will obviously be a tie. Give the advantage to the home team, especially in Death Valley.
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Florida | 75.6 | 202.2 | 277.8 | 18.7 |
| LSU | 97.4 | 137.5 | 234.9 | 18.7 |
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Oklahoma | 158.8 | 318.6 | 477.4 | 29.7 |
| Texas | 149.9 | 198.4 | 348.2 | 20.4 |
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Auburn | 217.9 | 160.9 | 378.8 | 27.0 |
| Arkansas | 141.7 | 462.9 | 604.6 | 42.7 |
| Game Estimates | ||||
| Team | Exp Rush | Exp Pass | Exp Total | Calc Score |
| Ohio State | 145.6 | 162.0 | 307.6 | 23.4 |
| Nebraska | 153.0 | 112.7 | 265.7 | 18.6 |
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Miami
I like the Miami prediction. Of course, I liked the Clemson prediction last week until about 10 o’clock Saturday night.
I think your formula might be missing the part that divides Ohio State’s expected score total by two. No way do they put up 23.4 points.
Statistical Scores are worthless
The ’Eye Score Estimate"
VT 20 Miami 17
LSU 21 UF 20
Texas 27 OU 24
Auburn 30 Ark 21
Neb 19 OSU 12
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