2011 Virginia Tech Football: North Carolina Game Guide

by furrer4heisman on Nov 14, 2011 8:00 AM EST in Virginia Tech Football

Virginia Tech Hokies (9-1, 5-1) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4, 2-4)

Time: 8 p.m. EST
Date: Thursday, Nov. 17, 2011
Place: Blacksburg, Va.
Stadium: Lane Stadium at Worsham Field
(Cap: 66,233, Open: 1965, Field: Bermuda)
TV: ESPN
Radio: VT IMG, XM TBA, Sirius TBA
Spread: Virginia Tech -11
Weather: Low of 30, 10% Chance of Rain

North Carolina: The Tar Heels are coming off a bye week after they were beaten 13-0 their last time out against NC State Nov. 5. After starting the season 5-1, the Heels have lost three of their last four games. North Carolina has its own sophomore quarterback in West Springfield's Bryn Renner. In his first year as the starter, Renner is completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 150.7 rating in six conference games. In his three road ACC games, Renner has completed 60 percent of his passes for 7.3 ypa with four touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Tar Heels have a very good run defense. In ACC play, the UNC defense has allowed 3.8 ypc, third in the conference.

Trends: Virginia Tech has won nine consecutive games against ACC Coastal opponents, including four in a row at home. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 10-4 in Thursday night games, including 5-2 at home. The Hokies are 2-7 and the Tar Heels are 5-4 ATS against FBS teams this year. North Carolina has lost three consecutive ACC road games after winning five of its previous seven.

History Lesson: Virginia Tech is 17-10-6 all-time against North Carolina, 6-2 under Frank Beamer and 2-1 at Lane Stadium. The teams did not meet between 1946 and the 1997 Gator Bowl. The Hokies won the last meeting, 26-10 last year in Chapel Hill. Tech forced six turnovers and had four sacks in the game on defense and Tyrod Taylor threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns on offense. The last meeting in Lane Stadium was also a Thursday night encounter in 2009, which UNC won 20-17 thanks to a pair of Connor Barth field goals in the last three minutes of the game, the game winner coming as time expired.

What to Expect

Expect the Hokies to have more trouble running the football this week than last. Their offensive line and ball carriers were able to impose their will on Georgia Tech's undersized defensive front, but North Carolina's front seven is big and very solid against the run. Last week, the Yellow Jackets' front seven averaged 252 pounds and their defensive line and inside linebackers averaged 267. The Heels' front seven averages 260 pounds and their defensive line and middle linebacker averages 282.
Expect Logan Thomas' play to dictate the Hokies' offense. He'll likely need to pick up first downs with his feet again, but he'll also need to take advantage of a UNC pass defense that's in the bottom third in the ACC. UNC is allowing 7.4 ypa in ACC play and ACC QBs have a 130.5 rating against the Heels.
Expect the Hokies to be able to pressure Renner. The Tar Heels have allowed 19 sacks in six ACC games this year, the most in the conference in terms of total sacks and sacks per game.
Expect red zone percentage to be a big factor in this game. UNC is among the best in the ACC in red zone TD percentage in conference play and is fifth in the league in red zone TD percentage against. The Hokies' offense is eighth on offense and ninth of defense in the same category.

Hokies Win If: They can run the ball and force turnovers.

Tar Heels Win If: They keep pressure off Renner and fare better in the red zone that VT.

Dot-dot-dots: David Wilson had a career-high 175 yards in Virginia Tech's win over Georgia Tech ... Thomas now has eight rushing touchdowns this year, tying the single-season high for a quarterback in Virginia Tech history ... the Hokies have won 11 consecutive games against teams from North Carolina, dating back to their loss to UNC in 2009 ... the Hokies have won 11 consecutive games in November and 11 consecutive home games in November.

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Comments

Another Stress Game

After my freshman year at VT, we played UNC in the Gator Bowl and got creamed. Since that day, I always worry about playing UNC. My concerns were reinforced when we lost the way we did at Lane in 2009. I hope wel come out of the gate and get on the board to set the tone. Although I suppose from an ACCCG standpoint this game means nothing as long as we beat UVA next week…

Not to get too far ahead of myself, but what are everyone’s thoughts on how a second go at Clemson might turn out? Who would be favore assuming we win out?

by loa777 on Nov 14, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions

Clemson rematch

2009 haunts me as well, it would be wrong of us to overlook the UNC game like we did the Duke game.

As for the rematch: Clemson is still having trouble stopping the run game, while LT3 is finally getting the rock to get the 1st down on those 3rd and short plays we had trouble with. On the other hand, Hosley still doesn’t seem like he’s at 100% and while Hill has really played well, Clemson’s receiving corp will give our secondary a run for their money (even with Watkins not at 100%). On the other hand, Boyd has been pulling a Jacory Harris the second half of this season, so get some pressure on him and we could see a few INTs. Like usual, it’ll be all about turnovers and time of possession.

As for the favorite going into it, it’ll depend on if Clemson can show up against South Carolina and win. Assuming both teams win out their regular seasons, I see Clemson a 3-7 point favorite, but that all depends on how people are betting and not so much the teams themselves.

In the next two weeks, we really need the Hokies to come out and dominate. LT3 is looking really good, albiet a bit slow, so he just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing and improving week to week. The win over GT gave me a huge boost of confidence in this team, I just want them to show up against two surprisingly decent ACC teams and show them we deserved to be ranked where we are.

by notagadget on Nov 14, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

I think the biggest difference will be the maturation of LT3. First time around he was in his 5th game starting, and still working out the kinks in his game and getting comfortable. This time he’ll have had an extra 7 games under his belt, and by losing the first game the expectations on him won’t be quite as high as the first game, people won’t be expecting a win like they will expecting Clemson to win.

LET'S GO CAPS!!!

by Elliotte on Nov 14, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I was impressed with LT3’s decision making and his accuracy against GT. I hope he can maintain poise that against UNC’s D-line. I think DW is running great and if he can hold onto the ball, he’s deadly. I hope we have him catching sme passes out of the backfield in the UNC game. Our defense did a great job against GT but Hosley still is getting beat bad from time to time. I am also still not the least bit confident with our kicking game. I cringe each time we get into field goal range and I am just waiting for the next shank of a punt in our own half of the field. I am worried that while the D may play well, special teams will be our undoing in a future game.

Having said that, if LT3 can be consistent with what we saw from him last week, I am excited about our chances to win the ACC.

by loa777 on Nov 14, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

I AM 100% CONFIDENT WE BEAT CLEMSON if we get there

At the time of our first game, I was thinking 50/50, depending on which Tech team showed up. I’m not usually one who gets overconfident, so I have a pretty good barometer. Watching Clemson play their last 4 games, it’s clear they’re not the team we saw in Blacksburg on Oct. 1. Watching us since then (sans the Duke game) it’s clear we’re not the team you saw on Oct. 1 against them. To be honest, we have a weaker defense, but if you’ll remember it was a close game until Eddie Whitley’s matador coverage of Dwayne Allen for the TD…“oh you want to run a skinny post? Okay, just run right on by to my inside and…wait a minute!” Then Ellington scored in garbage time.

We let Clemson’s HYPE beat us in Oct. We mentally let them beat/intimidate us before we ever stepped on the field. We also did that against LSU in ‘07. Granted LSU was the best team in the nation and went on to win the National Championship, but they lost two games that year. And at the end of the year, with the way we were playing, if we had played again on a neutral field I would’ve felt REALLY good about our chances.

by chicagomaroon on Nov 15, 2011 12:31 AM EST up reply actions

Rooting for you guys

Even though it might make more sense to root for UNC if I want our game to “matter”. As you know, I always root for Vippy Sue (and Commonwealth teams in general) as long as we’re not playing each other. He’s hoping we’ll beat FSU in the Doak and we can have a helluva game next week Saturday! I’ve got a nice American IPA conditioning in my basement right now that I’m prepping to be ready for next week’s game!

by ragekage on Nov 14, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions

UNC is a non-determinant

Doesn’t matter whether we win or lose against UNC, win the next two games and UVA goes to the ACC CG:

Lose to UNC, VT goes 5-2 (ACC) into the UVA game. UVA wins and goes to the ACC CG with a 6-2 ACC record.
Win against UNC, VT goes 6-1 (ACC) into UVA game. UVA wins, both teams have 6-2 in ACC and the win over VT is the tie breaker sending UVA to the ACC CG.

Gonna be a tough two weeks for UVA, hope you bring the pain to the ’Noles!!

by notagadget on Nov 14, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

If FSU beats UVA

and we beat UNC, then the Tech/UVA game doesn’t matter. UVA will have at best 3 losses and we will have at worst 2. You’re right though, if UVA beats FSU then the UNC game is irrelevant.

by dmet on Nov 14, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, but

I absolutely loathe UNC, so just whip the piss right out of them for us, okay? :)

by ragekage on Nov 14, 2011 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

Hokies and Hoos agree on hating Heels

Hows that for alliteration!? But absolutely right. I pine for the state rivalry to become relevant again! It can only help both of us from a national perspective. May the best man win.

by chicagomaroon on Nov 15, 2011 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

Major Letdown Game Potential

The Heels will likely be much more motivated than VT. They just lost to their rival. They have had a weekend off to rest up and prepare. This is the BIGGEST match-up they have left in their season, and will likely play as if it is their superbowl. And this will be Withers’ defining moment as a head coach.

This game will not decide if VT will go to the ACCCG. VT just beat the only other team to win the coastal division. Playing GT really beats up the defense both mentally and physically. They could be looking ahead to the UVA game, which could decide who goes to the ACCCG.

This game is a real big test for the coaches and their ability to ensure the players know how important this game is. This will also define LT3 as a good player with greatness on occasion or as a great player who brings it every week.

by Chazz Micheal Michealzz on Nov 15, 2011 1:10 PM EST reply actions

The reason I worry about the game after GT, and I’ll go into it a little farther during the What to Watch, is that you spend so much time preparing for the cut blocking and the now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t style GT has and then you play a team that is going to line up and come at you and try to beat you physically. UNC is going to try and run it right at us. How long will it take for the D to get back into that mode?

A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. Gobbler Country | Twitter | Facebook

by furrer4heisman on Nov 15, 2011 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

The game after GT is always worrisome

Most teams do not have very good records in the game after beating GT. This year, Miami lost to UVA and UVA lost to NC State. In 2010, the 6 teams that beat GT in the regular season went 1-5 in their next game. VT was the only team to win. It should also be noted that 2 of the 5 loses were against VT (NCST and Miami).

Since CPJ took over, VT is 2-0 in their games after beating GT, and 0-1 in the game after they lost to GT in 2009. Weird stat: Every game after GT in the past 3 seasons, VT has played UNC. So this will be the 4th year in a row VT will play UNC after GT.

by Chazz Micheal Michealzz on Nov 16, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions