Bowl Projections: Virginia Tech Almost Certainly Heading to Orange Bowl or Peach Bowl
by furrer4heisman on Nov 28, 2011 7:15 PM EST
in Virginia Tech Football
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The bowl scenarios are pretty simple for Virginia Tech heading into the ACC Championship Game. Win and the Hokies will go to Miami for the Orange Bowl and likely face the Big East champion. Lose and they're likely heading to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl where they'll draw an SEC opponent.
Orange Bowl
Should the Hokies win Saturday and head to Miami Jan. 4, they will probably face either Cincinnati, Louisville or West Virginia from the Big East or Houston from Conference USA. The Orange Bowl has the final pick among this year's BCS bowls and almost assuredly will be left with the Big East champion.
Louisville currently sits at 5-2 in the Big East and will win the conference if Cincinnati loses at home this weekend against Connecticut. The Bearcats will represent the Big East in the BCS if they beat the Huskies and West Virginia loses at South Florida. The Mountaineers win the conference if they beat the Bulls and Cincinnati wins to force a three-way tie. In that scenario, West Virginia would probably be the highest-ranked Big East team in the BCS and win the bid.
Many Hokie fans would be thrilled with the opportunity to play rival West Virginia in the Orange Bowl to renew the Battle for the Black Diamond Trophy. However, there is a chance Tech would play Houston if the Mountaineers win the Big East and the Cougars beat Southern Miss in the CUSA Championship Game.
There is a strong possibility Michigan will quality for the BCS at-large pool if LSU beats Georgia. If the Wolverines stay ahead of Baylor and pass the Big Ten Championship Game loser in the BCS standings, they will finish in the Top 14 and qualify for an at-large.
With a large, affluent fan base coming off a couple of down years, Michigan would be a prime choice for the Sugar Bowl should LSU beat Georgia and play Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game. The Sugar Bowl would then be faced with the choice of picking West Virginia, and setting up a RichRod Bowl between the Wolverines and Mountaineers, or nearby Houston.
If Louisville or Cincinnati win the Big East, the choice is easy for the Sugar Bowl: Take Houston. If West Virginia is on the table, I think there's a possibility the ACC champion will see the Cougars in the Orange Bowl. Still, the most-likely scenario is ACC vs. Big East in Miami.
Peach Bowl
If the Hokies fall to Clemson for the second time this season and aren't selected for a BCS at-large bid, they will go to the Peach Bowl Dec. 31. There, they will face the fifth selection from the SEC, which will almost certainly be Auburn.
If LSU beats Georgia and plays Alabama in the BCSNCG, Georgia, Arkansas and South Carolina will probably be scooped up by the Citrus Bowl, Cotton Bowl and Hall of Fame Bowl. That would leave the Peach Bowl with to pick between Auburn and Florida. Without being forced to avoid a rematch between Clemson and Auburn, the odds are the Peach Bowl will pit Auburn against the Hokies.
Sugar Bowl
What about an at-large BCS berth? Well, getting there would be very difficult for the Hokies. First, Southern Miss has to beat Houston and TCU has to beat UNLV to leave the BCS without an non-AQ AQ. Then, the Hokies would have to stay in the Top 14 in the BCS standings and be a viable at-large selection. I think that's possible if LSU, Oklahoma State and Oregon all win this weekend.
Wins by OSU and Oregon would keep the Cowboys and Ducks from competing with the Hokies in the at-large pool and hopefully knock Oklahoma out of it as well.
If all of that happened, the Fiesta Bowl probably matches up Stanford with OSU and the Sugar Bowl will be left to pick between Boise State, Kansas State and the Hokies for the final BCS at-large spot. Given the showing by the Hokie faithful in their previous three trips to Bourbon Street, in that scenario I like Tech's chances of getting picked. Of course, the chances of getting to that scenario are extremely slim.
Summary
Percentages? Percentages. Orange Bowl: 50%. Peach Bowl: 49%. Sugar Bowl: ~1%.
Projections? Projections. Orange Bowl: vs. Louisville. Peach Bowl: vs. Auburn. Sugar Bowl: vs. Michigan.
Just beat Clemson, worry about the rest Sunday.
More Projections
Bill Connelly, SB Nation: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia
Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia
Brad Edwards, ESPN: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia
Stewart Mandel, SI: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia
Joey Johnston, NBC Sports: Orange Bowl vs. Houston
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Not a lot to look foward to??
That is not a rewarding scenario for the Hokies….Would almost rather play Auburn than Louisville. I guess the best reward would be somehow finishing 3rd in the polls and going 13-1?? Also I wanted to add how disappointing it was to see Stephon Diggs drop VT from his recruiting list. Someone needs to tell him he has a great chance to start as a true freshman with Logan Thomas throwing bullets his way for two solid years….he was misguided
Nevermind, founf it
For Rivals subscribers you can find it here. Wonder why he eliminated us and not UVA when he was allegedly celebrating with us on our sideline after the game? Strange.
by chicagomaroon on Nov 28, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
I've been hearing the rumors swirling today, but I haven't seen an official "Diggs drops the Hokies" article yet
You got one? I’m not saying it’s not true, I’m just curious and the timing seems off.
UGA fan here...
I just wanted to stop by and pitch SEC membership.
We got A&M and Mizzou, but I was really hoping to grab you guys as one of the expanded teams.
However, with the whole 16 team mega-conference thing coming… You still have a chance.
It would not only dramatically raise your bowl profile, but it would also bring a high quality member to the SEC.
Just a thought.
Best of luck in your championship game.
I hope that you bring the ruthless beat down to Clemson.
Cheers.
Right
because it’s up to the guys on the message boards….
hope to see you guys win the ACC, regardless of whether the Mountaineers make it to the top of the Big East shit pile. VT is the best, and really only perenially great team in the league.
I REALLY hope to see you guys in the Orange Bowl. I’d kill for a Black Diamond Trophy battle.
"that place laid the foundation for who I am. A lot of outsiders make fun of it and say negative things about West Virginia. Fuck them" - Jerry West
by MountaineerAirman on Nov 29, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for taking the time to drop by the site
Here was the article I originally wrote about our inclusion to the SEC back when rumors were swirling in August. I’m not as steadfast against it now, but I’d still like to remain where we are.
Hope Brent Benedict is the real deal, because we will need linemen going forward!
Chris I swear to God if you don’t learn how to hit reply…
A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. Gobbler Country | Twitter | Facebook
by furrer4heisman on Nov 29, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
not sure how I feel about this
As much as I would hate to see a game like Stanford last year I also want to see a challenge for our team. For me the Big East just doesn’t offer that. Dont really wanna see a repeat of Cincinnatti. Houston would be interesting because it is not the type of team we usually play. Also, get to see what Keenum is really made of.
While
I’m in no way confident that, if the Mountaineers make it to the BCS, we would beat Virginia Tech (because with our inconsitencies and terrible O-line, it’d be a long shot) I think the game would be decided by 10 points or less regardless. It’s a rivalry game, a dormant one. I think both teams would be into it.
"that place laid the foundation for who I am. A lot of outsiders make fun of it and say negative things about West Virginia. Fuck them" - Jerry West
by MountaineerAirman on Nov 29, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a rivalry game, a dormant one.
One that I miss.
by Sam Jethroe on Nov 30, 2011 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
Not superstitious, but...
Before we start complaining about an Orange Bowl opponent, let me bring you back to 2005: a #5 ranked/one loss Coastal Div champ Hokie team faces a #22 ranked/four loss Atlantic Div team in the ACCCG (do those numbers look eerily familiar?). Result: the conference loses all credibility as it sends an 8-4 champion as its representative to the Orange.
Oh, one more thing
we wound up facing a Big East opponent that year anyhow…..“stomping” (pun intended) all over Louisville in the Gator.
Clemson is 9-3.
A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. Gobbler Country | Twitter | Facebook
by furrer4heisman on Nov 29, 2011 11:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah, I know…and their ranking is a spot or two higher than FSU’s was…and I’d rather have Logan Thomas than Marcus Vick…..but it was close enough comparison to make the point of not looking past to a January opponent yet….as you said to close your article “Just beat Clemson, worry about the rest Sunday”
David Teel made the same point you did today. This looks and smells like the 2005 game. Hopefully the outcome is different.
A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. Gobbler Country | Twitter | Facebook
by furrer4heisman on Nov 29, 2011 12:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You are forgetting one thing...
in this analogy … the curse of Bobby Bowden… we almost never beat that a$$. Only when Jimbo took over did we take a conference championship from them.
Don't Take Clemson Lightly
There is a lot of focus on our number 5 ranking and the beat down of UVA but the game Saturday is getting lost in the shuffle. If Clemson beat us once, they could do it again. We need to focus on this game and forget about Bowl games. Clemson is going to be pumped and out to prove they belong in this game. I just don’t want to see us get blind sided by inattention to details. I remember in 2005 when we were a 2 touchdown favorite against FSU and we got torched in the second half and Foster and Beamer were blaming each other for the collapse. We need to take care of business and David Wilson needs to hold on to the football. VT 28 – Clemson 13
Absolutely
Clemson is a couple of adjustments away from getting back to where they once were. I see them doing a little more MAX protection to support their O-line that has NOT been giving TBoyd enough time in the pocket. Also I think they will roll TBoyd out more often on throw run options. They have one plan and that is to get the ball to Sammy and rush for over 100 yards. Their defense has played OK ..So holding VT to 24 or less will make it a close game or be good enough for a W? Prediction VT 27 Clemson 21.
Not to be disagreeable, but...
I’ve read a lot of literature about the Beamer/Foster spat during the ‘05 ACC Championship game, and according to their interviews it sounds like they just had a disagreement. Foster suggested something to Beamer that he should do and Beamer retorted to let him run his team. Maybe I’m wrong, but this is the extent I’m aware of.
by chicagomaroon on Dec 1, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
WVU just won
WVU won but barely. If we win on Saturday, we will probably play them. I’m so glad they pulled it out, probably the best team out of the Big East and a challenging match for the Hokies.
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