2012 Sugar Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Michigan Preview
by furrer4heisman on Dec 28, 2011 11:24 PM EST
in Virginia Tech Football
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PrintVirginia Tech Hokies (11-2, 7-2) vs. Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 6-2)
2012 Sugar Bowl
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Date: Tuesday, Jan. 3
Place: New Orleans, La.
Stadium: Superdome
(Cap: 76,468, Open: 1975, Field: UBU Sports Synthetic Turf)
TV: ESPN and ESPN3.com
Radio: ESPN Radio, VT IMG, SXM 84
Spread: Virginia Tech + 2.5
Tickets: $120-180 (Face value)
Opposing Blogs: Maize N Brew, MGoBlog, SBN Updates
Michigan: Here's a more in-depth look at the Wolverines. Michigan used a vastly improved defense and the most dynamic quarterback in the nation to record its first 10-win season since 2006, when the Wolverines started the season 11-0. Michigan's two losses coincided with by far its two worst offensive performances of the season, a 28-14 loss at Michigan State and a 24-16 loss at Iowa. Against MSU, the Wolverines were an abysmal 3-for-15 on third down. The Iowa game was the only game all year they didn't force a turnover and they finished -2 in turnover margin, their worst of the season.
Trends:The Hokies won their final seven games of the regular season before falling to Clemson in the ACCCG while Michigan has won three consecutive games. Michigan is 1-5 in its last six bowl games and 1-3 all-time in BCS games. Virginia Tech is 3-4 in bowl games since joining the ACC and 1-4 all-time in BCS games.
History Lesson:This is the first meeting between the two teams. Virginia Tech is 1-2 in the Sugar Bowl, losing in their last two trips. Michigan's lone trip to the Sugar Bowl was a loss to Auburn in 1984.
What to Watch:
- Statistically, Michigan will be the best defense the Hokies have faced this year in terms of yards per game. It will also be one of the largest defensive fronts they've faced, as the Wolverines front four and front seven comes in just under North Carolina's in terms of size.
- Michigan's defenses is very comparable to UNC's. Not only are the sizes close, but UNC has allowed 5.23 yards per play this year and Michigan 5.24. Yards will be tough to come by against the Wolverines, particularly on the ground.
- Against UNC, the Hokies averaged 4.0 ypc minus sacks, one of their worst outputs of the season, and David Wilson had his streak of 100-yard games broken as he ran for 82 yards on 21 carries (3.9 ypc). Against Michigan and the likes of defensive tackle Mike Martin and defensive end Ryan Van Bergen, I think we can expect similar output in terms of yards per carry. I think Tech will do very well to average more than 4.5 ypc, which would give them the third best output by a Michigan opponent this season.
- I think the key for the Hokies offensively is to get the ball out to the flats quickly in the passing game and try to get the ball away from that front seven and into space. Some teams, like Illinois, have seen some success with zone-read plays.
- Illinois' rushing stats look like garbage in that game because the Illini fell behind early so they threw more and the Wolverines tallied 49 yards worth of sacks. But they were able to move the ball effectively with zone-read. Same with Northwestern, who also did well on some speed option plays out of the shotgun. In terms of run/pass percentage, those are the two teams we most resemble from the Big Ten.
- On the other side of the ball, Tech will be the third-best defense Michigan has faced behind Michigan State and Illinois. Looking at the defenses the Wolverines have faced this year, the two they lost to, MSU and Iowa, were really good up front and were able to force turnovers. Teams we're probably similar to in terms of personnel, like Nebraska, were carved up by these guys.
- The Hokies have not faced a player like Denard Robinson this year and how he plays will determine if Tech wins this game or not. If he has an off night with reading defenses on zone-reads and an off night throwing, Tech has a chance. But if he has his typical game, then it's not going to happen for the Hokies.
- At the end of the day, Robinson is going to have a handful of plays that frustrate a defense and prolongs drives. The key for the Hokies is to do a good job of eliminating his friends. Fitz Toussaint has made this offense more dynamic at the end of the year and does a good job of shedding tacklers and getting yards after contact.
- Tech needs to stop him from getting yards in the middle of the field and have good coverage against some very solid pass catchers led by Junior Hemingway and tight end Kevin Koger. Koger is Robinson's favorite target in the red zone and a third of his catches this year have come there, including four for touchdowns.
- As far as how the game goes, I see Tech having its usual slow start, falling behind early, being kept at arms length and giving up a late game-sealing score on a long play by Robinson. 31-21, Michigan.
Hokies Win If: They force turnovers and can run the ball consistently to keep Michigan's offense off the field.
Wolverines Win If: Robinson is solid their defense can force the Hokies into third-and-long.
Dot-dot-dots: This is Virginia Tech's first game in a dome since they beat Tennessee in the 2009 Peach Bowl ... that win broke a streak of five consecutive losses in domes, including a loss in the 2003 Copper Bowl, when the roof to the Arizona Diamondbacks' stadium was closed ... Virginia Tech has only faced a Big Ten team once in its history, a win over Indiana in the 1993 Independence Bowl ... Michigan is 15-2 against the ACC since 1960 ... its last game against the ACC was an 18-17 win over UVa in 1995 in Ann Arbor ... the Wolverines' last loss against an ACC opponent was a 17-15 loss to UNC in the 1979 Gator Bowl.
Important Site News: This will be the last post from me before the game and posting will be very limited for some time after it. My laptop died and I can't afford to get a new one AND go to New Orleans. New Orleans wins and I won't have access (or want to, honestly) to blogging once I get down there. I will try to get a postgame post up once I get back from the game Jan. 4, but it's going to be very quiet around here until I can scrounge up enough cash to get a new computer.
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Well, this was a depressing preview...but I don't disagree
I see the issue being the physicality of their defense and not Denard. Although he is their most gifted player, I think challenging him to make reads in the passing game could be our saving grace. Though he’s gotten better towards the end of the year, he still has a tendency to underthrow balls under pressure and throws a lot of jump balls regardless. If we get pressure on him, Jayron Hosley could do well (if he has anything left to play for in his mind) because of how good he is at anticipating and breaking on a route. Foster will undoubtedly dial up some blitzes Robinson will not have seen. But again, the whole game in my mind (other than turnovers which always have an effect on the outcome) is determined by Tech at the line of scrimmage on offense. Win that battle and win the game. Lose that battle like we did against UNC and Clemson twice, and lose the game like we did twice (almost three times).
Yes, the battle is in the line
The winner at the line of scrimmage wins this game. Also, special teams will be a huge factor in this one. VT will need to come prepared physically and mentally, plus the VT coaching staff will need to inject some creativity in their offensive schemes or we are done early.
Also kudos for choosing that picture of the Hokies getting off the plane
But it’s hilarious how prominent a role the trombone played in that picture! Great photography at work.
Another good article
Incredible that we’ve only had that one game vs a B10 team. I’m looking forward to the future games vs. Wisc and OSU, assuming that they don’t fall victim to expanded conference scheduling.
I can tell you that from B10 country all the media comments on Tech (always referred to, by the way, as “Vah” Tech, not Virginia Tech, despite the efforts of the Hokies’ media guide every year) focus only on David Wilson and stopping the running game. They give no attention at all to LT’s arm and Tech’s balanced offense. Let’s hope that Greg Mattison is as singularly focused.
Thanks for the analysis and good luck with the laptop issue.
Wait
what’s wrong with saying “VA Tech”?
by Meager Reader on Jan 1, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Michigan is referred to as "UM".
Vatech is just a lazy way of referring to Virginia Tech. Calling you Tech does not work because we here in Michigan have a Michigan Tech and there is always Georgia Tech to considered.
No offense is meant by it.
by Ryan Quattro on Jan 3, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
I still don't get it.
Everyone I know refers to Virginia Tech as “VA Tech” for short. How is that possibly an insult? And if “VA Tech” isn’t Virginia Tech, then what is it? There’s only one Virginia Tech, and VA are the state initials for Virginia. It just makes sense.
P.S. From my understanding, Michigan is actually referred to as “U of M” in speech but “U-M” in written form.
by Meager Reader on Jan 4, 2012 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
This game
I see this game going one of two ways. Either the Hokies we are used to seeing in big games shows up and Michigan beats us by about 10-14 points.
OR, the Hokies (in particular guys like DW, the offensive line, Hosley (if he still feels like he has something to play for) and the senior guys like Boykin and Coale) are so fed up with all the crap they have had shoveled on them from pretty much everyone, they go out and win the damn thing in spite of the coaches. I honestly do not have any faith in the offensive coaching staff in regards to this game.
Can VT hold off the Wolverine defense
Much is being made of containing Robinson but the big problem is going to be for VT to keep the Wolverine defense out of the Hokie backfield. This game could be over in the first quarter if Tech’s offensive line does not show up. Michigan very much resembles Clemson and UNC on defense and that means big problems for the Hokies.
Too Much Negativity from Fans
And I’m sick of it. I’m tired of all the VT Fans complaining, “VT always gets blown out in their bowl games.” “I don’t want to pay $2000 to see VT get blown out.” “VT has no chance against a B1G team.” All this shit is CRAP. VT is a good team. Look at their bowl record and scores. How many times have they been blown out??
I count ONE since they played in the National Championship game. In fact, they’ve blown out 2 teams since then (vs Clemson 2001 Gator & vs Tennesee 2009 Peach).
Everyone points to the 2011 Orange Bowl and the 2011 ACCCG and say VT always get blown out. And let’s forget the 2009 Peach, the 2001 Gator, the 2005 Sugar, the 1995 Sugar, the 2007 ACCCG, the 2008 ACCCG. It’s bull shit.
Michigan has the same chance as VT to get blown out in this game. All it takes is 1-2 key or lucky plays before it spirals out of control. I don’t think it will happen this year. I predict it will be a shoot-out, with game coming down to 1 score or less. Also, expect the arrival of Marcus Davis onto the national scene.
by Chazz Michael Michaelzz on Dec 29, 2011 4:45 PM EST reply actions
Hokie schedule is suspect
I agree that they have a good team but many of the fans are realists. Tech’s 10 win seasons are not exactly wins over high quality teams. VT needs to take the negativity this time around and do something with it. I am frustrated with the Hokies after seeing them get pummeled on National TV against Clemson. The game was horrific for Tech fans. I just don’t want to see Michigan do the same thing to us; problem is, it is a real possibility. They had everything to play for in that game and just went on a bust. You would think the Hokies could work up some inspiration for the Sugar Bowl game.
Of course it's a Realistic Possibility
Because it’s REAL. Football isn’t scripted by Frank Beamer. I’m a realist. I know Michigan is good, but to think VT isn’t good is just ignorant. Miami, UNC, and Clemson all have NFL talent. GT has a scheme that’s really hard to defend in the regular season. And, well, UVA beat FSU on a missed FG attempt.
Who did Michigan beat? Nebraska is the only one ranked…
Hell, if the AP poll went past 25, Ak St would be 28, GT 31, UVA 32. So, VT has beaten 3 of the top 35 teams, Michigan has beaten 2 (Notre Dame would be 26).
Here’s some reasons for optimism:
1. F4H is right, the Michigan front-7 is good, but they does not have the amount of NFL caliber players you find in the front 7 of UNC and Clemson. In fact, UM’s linebackers are young, undersized, and not extremely quick. If LT3 or DW4 get in space, look out.
2. Their D-line depth is getting thin with injuries (much like VT’s all year).
3. VT has been able to contain mobile QBs in the past (T. Washington, E. Manuel, R. Ball, P. White), whereas they get beat by NFL-quality passers (A. Luck, M. Ryan, A. Rodgers)
Bottom line, when you actually compare VT and Michigan, they’re virtually equal. They’ve both had fairly balanced schedules, playing well against some competition, and poor against others. Expect a close game.
by Chazz Michael Michaelzz on Dec 30, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Have Faith
Guys, guys, guys. Look. I understand your lack of enthusiasm going into this game. The big losses, the gigantic let-downs, the suspect game-planning…etc. etc. But let’s not forget: We are Virginia Tech! We have had an emotional month. Shootings, players missing curfew, teammates being charged with felonies, and the media blasting us for being undeserving. This team will come in motivated. They will be mentally ready. We have had a knack this year for having one game up, the next down. We havent played consecutive bad games all year. LT3 and his group will come in with something to prove. Keep your head up, and lets go down to New Orleans and remind everyone why we were picked to play in this game, and lets bust Michigan lip right from the opening whistle. Points will come much easier than most expect in this game; VT: 38 UM: 24 Run Hokies, run.
Mgoblog
I’m usually pretty pessimistic about Tech’s chances in a big game. For some reason, for this game I’m feeling confident that Denard won’t have much success throwing against us.
Anyway.. maybe I shouldn’t be reading too much stuff on mgoblog.com (or whatever that Michigan site is).. but, wow… they treat VT like they are playing Eastern/Western/Central Michigan or something.
What I wouldn’t give for a 38-0 win like the UVA game.
Um, no we are not treating you like a directional school.
Sure, some are unimpressed with the Hokies, but those are the foolish ones. That your conference is generally underwhelming does not help the perception of your program. But I have watched enough of your games to know that Michigan is in for a helluva of a fight.
Any team that plays good defense and has excellent special teams is going to be hard to beat.
by Ryan Quattro on Jan 3, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
To all the nay sayers out there.
Listen up fellow Hokie fans, VT wins this game in big fashion. The attitude i see from all the players in the interviews, esp LT3, you can hear it in their voice and see it in their eyes. They want this, not saying we never have. But i can see it LT3, hes highly pissed about the loss LAST year, and the clemson losses. I expect Logan and David to have a big night, and I see the worlds stingiest defense coming back to fashion. I am also predicting Jayron Hosely to have 3 picks in this game and not get beat once.
"There are wolves and there are sheep, I am the sheep dog"
I sure hope so
Nothing that I’d like better than to see VT give a strong performance & win this game convincingly. Could go a long way towards recruiting top-notch talent.
and hell no “Vah” Tech isn’t acceptable. Where’s my middle finger smiley?
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Jan 3, 2012 5:11 AM EST up reply actions
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