FanPost

Statistical Score Estimate vs. Clemson

Last week, the estimate was not too far off especially if you made some manual adjustments for Home and Away, so I should probably just quit but let's put the spreadsheet to the test for a second week in a row.

 

And while I'm at it, I was able to get all of the teams added so we'll look and see what might happen in other notable games this week.  As one person recommended, I have added a rank so that you can see how each category (Run and Pass/Offense and Defense) is comparable to the rest of the league.

 

Details after the jump.  If you missed how the calculations are determined, you can check last week's post for the Marshall score estimate.

Hokie Offense

You can see that our numbers are very similar to last weeks.  The rushing numbers were bumped up a tad from the 232 yards that we put up against a good run defense.

 

Team Adj Rushing Yards Rank Adj Passing Yards Rank
Virginia Tech 175.0 35 190.8 75

 

Hokie Defense

After giving up 242 yards to a passing offense that was getting less than 175 YPG, the pass defense takes a hit but our run defense becomes the second best in the league behind LSU after only giving up 6 yards on the ground.

 

Team Adj Rushing Yards Rank Adj Passing Yards Rank
Virginia Tech 53.9 2 204.3 23

 

Clemson Game

Due to the fact that Clemson's weakness (run defense) matches up perfectly for our strength (run offense) this model predicts a solid victory.  However, even though Clemson's run D has been way worse than Marshall's, do we really think that we can rack up 300+ yards on the ground?  Not likely in ACC conference play, but that's what the trend shows so far.

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Clemson 52.5 255.2 307.7 16.9
Virginia Tech 314.7 195.1 509.7 35.0

 

Other Notable Games

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Alabama 162.1 182.7 344.9 22.6
Florida 80.7 133.2 213.9 13.6

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Nebraska 180.0 108.7 288.8 18.7
Wisconsin 209.7 275.3 485.0 33.3

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Texas A&M 182.7 288.5 471.2 35.5
Arkansas 45.8 314.7 360.5 23.6

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
SMU 94.0 373.2 467.3 31.5
TCU 120.1 182.1 302.1 25.1

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