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Statistical Score Estimate vs. Boston College

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Not much of an introduction this week.  Excel picked Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Texas A&M correctly while missing Michigan State's domination of Michigan (forgot to analyze Michigan State defenders ripping of Denard Robinson's head) and Auburn (who is the anti-VT always outplaying their statistics while we always play below ours).

 

One thing of note.  I've added the actual YPG of each statistic to give a relative sense of how each category is adjusted based on the teams played so far.



Hokie Offense

The total offense continues to hover around the middle of the pack while our Rushing game drops 10 spots, but our passing game gains 12 spots in ranking.  Let's hope we continue to see this trend as Logan Thomas continues to progress and our offense gains more balance as the season goes along.  You'll notice that while we actually gain 192 YPG on the ground, a large part of that is due to the fact that we play some weak run defense teams (ECU, Clemson, Miami), so against an average defense we would gain the 153.6 yards.

 

  Rushing Offense
Team Actual Rush YPG Acutal Rank Adj Rushing Yards Adj Rank
Virginia Tech 192.1 34 153.6 53

 

 

  Passing Offense
Team Actual Pass YPG Actual Rank Adj Passing Yards Adj Rank
Virginia Tech 227.0 63 209.2 65

 

Hokie Defense

You'll notice that even though we are middle of the pack in passing defense, after you adjust for the fact that we've played 4 of the top 25 passing offenses in college football (ECU, Arkansas State, Clemson, and Wake) we are nearly a top 25 passing defense in addition to our stellar run defense.  (Except for that damn one 80 yard touchdown scoring play that we give up every freakin game).


  Rushing Defense
Team Actual Rush YPG Actual Rank Adj Rushing Yards Rank
Virginia Tech 83.7 8 106.9 16


  Passing Defense
Team Actual Pass YPG Actual Rank Adj Passing Yards Rank
Virginia Tech 214.4 52 208.4 27



Boston College Game


Not much surprise here with the prediction of a Hokie victory by about 13 points.  I'm sure most fans think we'll probably (and should) win this game by a bigger margin.  But the fact is that this team started off the year with zero offensive identity, so the averages still keep the offense down to 27 points.

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Boston College 81.0 173.1 254.2 14.9
Virginia Tech 172.6 242.0 414.6 27.5

 

 

Other Notable Games

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Auburn 93.4 137.9 231.2 13.7
LSU 180.8 187.6 368.3 29.3

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Wisconsin 115.3 137.7 253.0 17.9
Michigan State 126.5 160.0 286.5 15.9

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
North Carolina 212.2 212.3 424.5 29.1
Clemson 147.0 337.0 484.0 33.2

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Washington 90.5 215.1 305.6 18.3
Stanford 110.9 420.7 531.7 42.0

 

 

  Game Estimates
Team Exp Rush Exp Pass Exp Total Calc Score
Georgia Tech 311.1 168.0 479.1 32.2
Miami (Florida) 212.2 179.1 391.3 30.5