Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Tech Hokies: Bowling for Duke, Survival for Tech

In 2014 it was 17-16 Hokies over Duke:  A Score Not Worth Repeating but a Result We Need

Look again at that score. It is last year's pre Wake Forest disaster score.  We beat a surprisingly good Duke Blue Devil team at Duke, last year.  That was the good news, I suppose.  W's in the books are always good news, right?  Last year, Virginia Tech was facing every demon that a team can confront during a season.   We had injuries, our offense was sputtering, our defense was not good (especially in the clutch) and the fans were filing out of Lane Stadium soon after the halftime break.  We arrived with the fear of complete season loss at that point.  A loss at Duke would mean that it would be difficult to gain any sort of redemptive bowl invitation.  We still had Wake Forest and UVA left on the schedule but we needed to win two out of three for a .500 season and a truly winning regular season needed an end of season sweep.

Is Duke going to be a symbol game this season?  Is it going to be a blow out for either team, or one of those typical Tech vs Duke efforts; where Duke plays harder than we had prepared for, and the outcome is far from clear most of the way through the game?

Last year, Duke should have creamed us.  For many reasons, some of which I touched on just a second ago, Tech came out primed for battle.  The Defense stepped up and there was just enough effort to pull off a one point squeaker.  That was then and that season...

This is now.  Virginia Tech enters the football game with a losing record (3-4) and am ACC total of 1-2.  Unless Pitt completely falls apart, we have no chance at the Coastal Division.  We do have, however, a chance at a measure of redemption for the brutally inconsistent and unlucky start of the 2015 effort.  We are at the 2/3rds mark of the season.

The pressure is on.  Tech must win at home against the Blue Devils.  The odds makers are giving us a roughly 2.5 point (Home field goose) advantage but the reality is that these teams are at a push status.  That is, perhaps, a misallocation of the spread.  The Duke Blue Devils are for real again this season; and unlikely to be intimidated by playing on Worsham Field.

The Duke University Blue Devils

Duke enters Lane Stadium after a bye week, with something that it has rarely seen in the last few decades; an AP Poll ranking (23) and a 5 - 1 record.  The Blue Devils are a balanced and experienced team.  Thomas Sirk is a running quarterback who has a modest rating with modest total passing statistics.  His completion rate is a respectable number, and he actually leads the team in rushing at 325 yards on 75 carries.  There is no single Duke Feature running back.  The Blue Devils pass but not for scores.  They move the ball and spread the targets around to a pretty large list of receivers.

Duke's defense has been effective this season.  No team has scored more than 20 points on them, and even with their loss against Northwestern, they held the game to a 19-10 score.  At the time Northwestern was polling at 23.

The Blue Devils are playing for this season's chance at bowl eligibility.  If they can walk away from Saturday's game with a W, they also get to stand in line to go bowling.  David Cutcliffe has completely turned the Duke Football program around.  It might not be dominant like their basketball teams, but there is no doubt that they are finished being the doormat for the ACC Coastal Division on the gridiron.

Let's take a look at the stats for the Duke offense as provided by Yahoo Sports:

Passing Statistics

Rushing Statistics

Receiving Statistics

The Virginia Tech Hokies:

The Hokies chances are directly tied to one name; Michael Brewer.  Brewer is getting his first start since breaking his collar bone in the season opener against OSU.  He played for about a quarter in last week's loss to... sigh... we lost last week... to Miami.  He had one very nice touchdown drive to keep us in the game, but the defense failed to stop Miami on the next drive, and put Brewer under pressure to make throws, so he ended up with an interception that was due more to a lack of practice, timing, and too much rust.  He really shouldn't have been in that sort of pressure situation without more playing time.  Starting this week is going to benefit him greatly in both practice time and momentum building in the game.

The story of this season could have been that critical injury, but in truth the real "story" is the uneven and often disappointing performance of the Defense.  The same problems cropped up last year, and don't seem to have been addressed in this year's squad.  We have good talent at Defensive line, but our Tackles are not big enough, and neither are our Defensive Ends.  Without some sort of blitz package to help out, our front four aren't getting enough pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, and they certainly aren't containing them either.  Our linebackers are completely non-existent -ok we have one or two true outside/Backer sized linebackers.  Motuapuaka is learning, but should be playing a Rover/Whip hybrid position, not Mike.

Our defense is just not getting critical stops in games where we have a chance to make a point turn around but need the ball back.  Our offense unfortunately sees more "three and outs" than our defense.  This Hokie team is inconsistent, and unfocused.  It needs to come to Lane ready to play; but there is no guarantee which team will show up on Saturday afternoon.

This is a must win for Tech.  If we lose again, it is going to be increasingly difficult to gain bowl eligibility.  We will be on a two game elimination bubble.  That's some serious pressure for a team that has the sorts of consistency problems that we have, right now.

So... Michael Brewer might not want the entire team put on his shoulders, and it might not be quite fair to mention it, but it's there.  He has to be the difference maker, and the team needs to rally around him to help him out.

Here are Tech's numbers courtesy of Yahoo Sports:

Passing Statistics

Rushing Statistics

Receiving Statistics

The End Game IFs:

The Duke Blue Devils win IF: They can stop Brewer from igniting the Hokies.  They need to put pressure on him, knowing that he's not going to run at the same rate and power as Brenden Motley.  They have to stop the influence running game, and keep Travon McMillian from running like he did last week against Miami. (McMillian's biggest opponent in last week's game was the Virginia Tech Coaching staff, who would not let him have the ball in a sufficient variety of plays to make a difference in the game.)

Duke's offense needs to be competent.  Tech is still vulnerable to Duke's strength which is the running quarterback.  It needs to keep the ball on the ground, and burn up as much clock as it can to keep Brewer and the Hokie offense off the field.

The Virginia Tech Hokies win IF: They can leverage Brewer's better command and control of the offense to get the ball to the tight ends, wide receivers, and Rogers.  They need to loosen up the Blue Devil Defense so that Travon McMillian can use his one cut and go skills off the edges to run the ball.

The Tech Defense needs to get stops.  They need to play containment on Thomas Sirk and force him to throw into tight coverage over the zone or dump the ball off to avoid sacks.

It's pretty simple really.  Tech needs to play a complete football game, with minimal mistakes, and a serious disciplined penalty free effort.  This is another winnable game.  Lane is unlikely to be full, the weather is supposed to be partly cloudy and in the mid 60's.

The game is at 3:30 on ESPNU.

Hokies need to show up with a serious winning attitude.  The fans do to.  The Hokies need their 12^th man back.  It's been missing for a while now.  We've got to fix that.

Sources:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/259/virginia-tech-hokies