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What Happens in Vegas, Stays in Blacksburg

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Want the REAL forecast of Virginia Tech's Season? Look no further than "Sin City"

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Have you ever been to Las Vegas?  It is truly an assault on the senses.   Bright lights, big city indeed.  I'm not here for the amazing culinary scene, or the fabulous shows.  I'm here strictly for the numbers.  I'm not interested in 21.  I don't give a "crap" about 7 or 11.  We are here to hit some of the bigger sportsbooks to see how the "sharps"  see the season in Blacksburg shaking down.  For the gambling novice, the important thing to remember is this:  The house wants equal bets on both sides of the proposition. For example, if Virginia Tech was favored over Sisters of the Poor University by 14, Vegas wants equal money placed on each.  This is a weird business model admittedly, but casinos make their money on "juice" or the vig.  For our sake we will call this premium "The Juice".  If I bet 110 bucks on Virginia Tech to cover against the Sisters of The Poor and win, I get 100 American dollars.  If I lose, I pay 110 American dollars  (Or 10%) of the total bet.  Casinos pay the light bill based on the juice.  This is important when looking at the following lines.  Remember that the big books want equal action on both sides of the line.  You can bet on just about anything surrounding the Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State game. For instance:

Here we have a money line that will try and predict which of the Ohio State quarterbacks will get the starting nod against the Hokies. I talk to people all day every day that tell me who will win that game.

"The difference between sports radio caller guy and the so called "sharps" in Vegas is simple.  Sports radio caller doesn't have his mortgage tied in to his assessment."

-Roy Hatfield

In the micro, the Vegas folks have the opening matchup in Blacksburg a blowout. They consider the Hokies no match for Urban Meyer and crew. I tweeted this out earlier and got mixed response.

The overall take from Vegas is that we are 16 points less than the Buckeyes. Again, you must keep in mind that they want equal action on both sides...but damn. It reminds me of a high spread against a defending national champion in a season opener of years' past. Ask Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart what a pushover Tech was at FedEx field. Virginia Tech covered that game by the way. The Buckeyes game doesn't concern me as much as the season win total prop bet.  Again, this one of those things that everybody knows, but I tend to listen to the true oddsmakers. Currently the over/under win total for Virginia Tech is at 8. That is from the Golden Nugget. They figure half will take over, half will take under. At this point I am firmly undecided. College football is inherently unpredictable. Look no further than last year to understand the power of that statement.

Follow me @roybhatfield

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