Preview: The Virginia Tech Hokies vs The University of Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday it's Senior ‘Night' at Lane Stadium.  Night in that there is probably going to be some sort of dinner or private event honoring the Seniors from the football team, the cheerleading squad, and the bands.  But the game is at noon, so night is stretching the definition a bit.

What isn't to be stretched or distorted is the importance of this game to Virginia Tech, again.  The past few years the win was necessary just to qualify for a bowl bid.  This year, as we have repeatedly reminded everyone, a win on Saturday will cement the Hokies' 2016 Coastal Division Championship, and send us to Orlando to face the Clemson Tigers in the premier ACC event of the season.  The Championship has been out of the picture for more than a few years, since we lost it in 2011 when we lost to the Clemson Tigers (corrected - ed).  That's six years after having dominated between 2004 and 2010.  As we have often repeated, that was then and this is now.   It is also what might be, not was is.   The directly in front of us is with our cross state archrival the Wahoos, and though the Commonwealth Cup isn't the Dr. Pepper Championship Trophy, it certainly is the spoils of a very old and very storied relationship.

We have all heard that Tech has dominated the games over the last 12 seasons.  Yup, we've won 12 games in a row, and are looking for the 13^th to help seal the big deal in the Coastal.  However, look at the Beamer Era games in the chart and notice something a bit "interesting".  (Hokies Sports Schedule History)

We have rarely stumbled, and have had our share of pretty convincing blow out wins, but the last three seasons with major things on the line, the Wahoos have played us tough as shoe leather.   There was a time in this rivalry where UVA did rear up and chomp on us hard.  In fact Franks first few years were plagued by losses to UVA both at home and at Scott Stadium.  We really didn't turn the corner until 1999 when the programs headed in very different directions.

When we finally joined the ACC, the domination was complete.  They haven't beaten us in the ACC years.  If all this sends up all sorts of warning flags, it should.  If there has been anything truly consistent about Virginia Tech over the past decade, it's the tendency to drop games in which we are heavily favored and the historic victor, IF there is something on the line, like a championship, or big TV presence.  As underdogs we rock, but as favored teams we have repeatedly lived down to low expectations.

This season we need to break that cycle and do it in style.   Only, the Wahoos are going to be in the way.  They are tired of the snoot full of pride diminishing losses, and no one but a Hokie knows the dripping sort of down their nose look that most Wahoos give their country cousins from the southwest plateau.

So, what are we facing?  First is the new Coach Bronco Mendenhall took the reins of the Wahoo machine a few months after Whit Babcock landed Justin Fuente.   The reports started coming out of Hooville of a "problematic" transition.  Virginia Sports, The Richmond Times-€”Dispatch, and Comcast Sports Net all published stories this summer regarding the culture change going on in the Cavalier football program once Mendenhall (who's last experience was super buttoned down BYU).  So far, the transition has not resulted in as immediate a success as the Beamer to Fuente move.

UVA is chained to the ACC Coastal Anchor with a record of 2-9; including an opening day embarrassment by FCS powerhouse Richmond Spiders.  The season has been a struggle for the Hoos, and there is no buttering over the losses, especially against UCONN and Richmond (The Hoos got by Central Michigan in a shoot out).  It's not like we haven't suffered some embarrassments ourselves so there will be no gloating from these pages.

The Cavaliers come to Lane stadium knowing that this will be their last game of the season.  They know that they have an opportunity to throw the Coastal wide open and barring a UNC loss, actually hand it to the Tar Heels.  For Saturday, the Commonwealth Cup game is the Wahoo's bowl game.  I cannot imagine a more perfect opportunity to come to the coin toss with some serious energy and purpose to be a spoiler for your arch rival's season hopes.

The Wahoo's start Senior QB Kurt Benkert is not starting.  Their other Senior Matt Johns is expected to get the nod.  He hasn't shown that he's a running quarterback this season, and his passing and QB quality stats are also not the highest.  He has thrown three picks this season, and his QBR is barely above 100.  Why does that still make me nervous?  The Yahoo Sports tables don't lie too often.   Matt Johns is as much of a trap player to us as Benkert.

Passing

The Hoo rushing attack has been moderately successful this season but really only has three top rushers that have produced much of anything.  Taquan Mizzell carries the rock for them more often than most, but among Mizzell, Reid, and Ellis all have managed to keep their yards per carry average above 4 yards.

Rushing

The Wahoo passing attack is functionally a straight pro-style offensive operations with drop back passing and more traditional routes and formations.   As you can see their top four receivers average more than 8 yards per catch.  Doni Dowling, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Keeon Johnson have grabbed up over 1500 yards this season.  Keeping them in check by covering them, and getting heavy pressure on a pocket passer with a tendency to get sacked and throw interceptions is going to be the primary defensive mission.

Receiving

Objectively, on paper, Virginia Tech should be able to run away and hide on Saturday.  Let me explain again, how we have underperformed those sorts of match ups this season.  We were stunned by a Syracuse team that had very similar capabilities (with the exception of a more mobile Quarterback).  So everyone will have to pardon me if I am toting the camera on the sideline, and being nervous for every play in every direction.

Tech's offense has been inconsistent and its defensive secondary has been dicey this season.  The consistency problems are not even game to game, but can be quarter to quarter.  This situation should eventually settle down, but the Hokies have bumped down the road, more than roared this season.

We have flashes of brilliance, and it would be really good for us to show it on Saturday.

Again, Virginia Tech wins this football game IF WE DON'T BEAT OURSELVES...

GO HOKIES!!!!

Updated 11/25/2016 at 9:20 am.  Warning: Don't do research and cut and paste while influenced by a post Thanksgiving food coma.