The Hokies, after notching their first conference win of the season on Saturday against a reeling Pittsburgh side, travel to Winston-Salem to take on the Demon Deacons. Both sides have identical 1-2 conference records, which makes the result of this game very meaningful. With a win, the Hokies would be back to .500 in conference play – not a great start, but one they can build off of. However, a loss would move them down the standings to 1-3; not the place a team with tournament aspirations wants to be with many difficult games left on the schedule.
Typically, games between these two teams have been high-scoring. Virginia Tech lost their matchup last year in Blacksburg, but exacted their revenge just days later in the ACC tournament. The Hokies have won 4 of the last 5 against the Deacons, averaging 87.6 points in those contests. Wake Forest has not had a great season thus far, but they are just days removed from handing Syracuse a 73-67 loss. Every single one of their conference games so far has been competitive, including a 4-point loss at UNC.
After a disastrous start to conference play, Virginia Tech seemed to find some of their offensive rhythm against Pittsburgh. They were able to pound the ball inside with Blackshear and other players were able to attack the rim. Granted, it was against an all-freshmen starting lineup. But that can build some confidence, especially when it comes to finding a shooting rhythm.
Virginia Tech’s shooting woes have been well-documented, and if they continue shooting 24.5 percent from behind the arc, it is going to be a forgettable year. However, this might be a game where that number starts to turn around. Wake Forest allows its opponents to shoot 38.9 percent from three for the year. The Deacons have tightened up their defense over the last few weeks, as that number drops to 33.9 percent over the last three games. Still, the Hokies have the personnel and the matchup history to be able to take advantage of a team KenPom ranks 153rd in defensive efficiency. As a unit, Wake Forest gives up 72.5 points per game which ranks just 189th in the country.
Another reason for optimism given Saturday’s performance was the turnover rate. Virginia Tech only committed 6 turnovers, tied for their lowest output on the year. In the five games preceding Saturday’s game, the Hokies had given it up 14 times on average. The lowered turnover rate may not be a trend yet, but it is certainly a step in the right direction. The Hokies need to take care of the basketball, especially since they have struggled on defense and rebounding the basketball. Luckily for the gobblers, the Deacons are average at forcing turnovers ranking 169th in opponent turnover percentage.
Virginia Tech also needs to have some success in the paint. They have not been so good finishing at the rim lately, and much of their success last game was due to Kerry Blackshear having a dominant game, finishing with a career-high 31 points. He will once again be instrumental to scoring in the paint, but he will undoubtedly have a tougher time doing so on the road against a better team.
Projected Wake Forest Starters
Bryant Crawford – G
Mitchell Wilbekin – G
Chaundee Brown – G
Terrence Thompson – F
Doral Moore - C
Player Stats:
Wake Forest has an above average offensive unit this season, scoring 77.1 points per game. Most of their success is a result of Bryant Crawford’s growth as a player. Each year he has become more and more integral to the Deacons’ success, and this year Crawford is averaging a team-high 16.2 points and 4.7 assists, showing that he can be a playmaker if called upon. He has produced 251 points this season, nearly 80 more points than the next closest player on the team. Crawford is effective from three-point range, converting on 36.8 percent of his attempts and can get to the charity stripe where he is a 90.5 percent free throw shooter. He makes the offense tick, which makes the top priority for Virginia Tech to shut him down.
Another key player to watch is 7’1” center Doral Moore. He has the height and skill to either dominate the glass or force Blackshear into foul trouble. Moore should plenty of chances to wreak havoc on the interior of the Hokies’ defense. Currently, the junior averages 9.4 points and 7.8 boards per game. He is also one of the better shot blockers in the league right now with a 25.1 percent block rate.
The Deacons’ second leading scorer, Keyshawn Woods, comes off the bench. Averaging 14.2 points per game, Woods gets plenty of action when he enters the game with a 25.2 percent usage rate. He is dangerous from behind the arc, shooting 40.0 percent from three but just 33.3 percent from long range over the last four games. Mitchell Wilbekin is statistically the best shooter on the Deacons, hitting on 46.0 percent of his threes but is not as effective when he steps inside the arc. The Hokies will need to run both players off of the three-point line, and stay attached to their hip in man-to-man defense (something they struggled with against Virginia). Wake Forest shoots 39.8 percent from three as a team and ranks first in the ACC shooting 43.2 percent from that distance during conference play. Virginia Tech will need to be sound in their coverages to ensure this team does not get hot early.
When Crawford exits the game, the keys to the offense fall into the hands of Brandon Childress, who averages 3.9 assists – second on the team. He is not a great scorer and is not physically dominant at just 6’0”, but he is a smart player that can set up shots for other players. Chaundee Brown is a 6’5” freshman who shows some potential, averaging 7.7 points per game. Terrance Thompson is the last Deacon starter I have yet mentioned, but he does not get too many looks on offense averaging just 5.3 points per game. However, Thompson’s 6’7” frame helps Wake Forest control the glass and he is one of the better defenders on the team.
Prediction:
Can the Hokies carry momentum from their win against Pittsburgh from Blacksburg to Wake Forest? That will be the key question we will get an answer to tonight. I expect this to be another high-scoring affair with the Hokies’ three-point shooting getting back on track after a rough slump. Neither of these two teams’ defenses are very good, and Wake will surely be fired up at home to play the Hokies. Buzz has had success against the Deacons, and although the Hokies have struggled recently, I still do think they are better overall as long as they keep Doral Moore in check.
Hokies 85-82.